By virtue of being the last major free agent standing, Barry Zito and his agent-of-Satan agent, Scott Boras, are playing interested teams off against one another and jacking up their price into previously uncontemplated stratospheres. Five years and $75 million (reportedly the Mets' best offer) is deemed insufficient; Texas has gotten a noncommital response to its offer of seven years and more than $100 million.
An afterthought in all this insanity is whether or not Zito's past and probable future performance merits superstar money. As Patrick Swayze said in "Roadhouse": "Opinions vary."
— Baseball Prospectus: "Zito has gained a great deal of fame for some incredible pitching in the past, as well as his reputation as a goofy left-hander. This has kept him in the spotlight for some time in Oakland, even during a time where few Athletics players were given much love by the national media. He'll certainly be paid for what he has done rather than what he will do, but unless the situation turns out to be just right, the club that signs him may very well regret it as soon as year two or three of what will most likely be a much longer deal."
— USS Mariner: "Barry Zito, the last three years, has given up about 10 to 15 runs less than an average starting pitcher over the course of 200 innings. He’s been something like a three win player compared to what the Mariners could cobble together as their fifth starter with some combination of prospects and assorted Triple-A fodder.
"If there was a 100% chance that Zito would repeat his average performance over the last three years, with no decline in performance and no chance for injury, he still wouldn’t be worth $16 or $17 million per season. He’s just not an elite pitcher. He hasn’t been for several years.
"Toss in the significant chance of decline and injury over the course of a long term deal, and giving Zito anything close to a 6 year, $100 million deal shouldn’t even be on the Mariners radar. Give superstar contracts to superstar players. Barry Zito isn’t one now, wasn’t one last year, and won’t be next year."
— Keith Law, ESPN.com: "Zito is a third or fourth starter with the reputation of a one or a two. In fact, over the last three years, he's struggled badly when facing the two premier offenses in the AL, posting a 6.59 ERA against Boston and the Yankees while walking 47 men and allowing 18 homers in 83.3 innings. His control is below-average; only Daniel Cabrera has walked more batters in the last two years than Zito has. And should Zito's stuff slip at all, he becomes a fifth starter or a guy who needs to head to the National League, the current destination for asylum-seekers who fear AL persecution of their fringy fastballs."
— The Hardball Times: "Zito’s unique skill, so to speak, is the theoretical ability to induce infield fly balls. Seriously. If you look at his line, that’s the only thing he does particularly well. The league average IF/Fly rate is 10%, but the last three years, Zito has posted marks of 13.3%, 19.3%, and 16.4%. He ranked 5th in the AL in IF/Fly this year, 2nd last year, and fourth two years ago.
"The rest of his line - walks, strikeouts, home runs, line drives, and stranding runners - are all mediocre (with the exception of his ‘06 LOB%, which was very high, but is a Washburn in ‘05 style fluke). His success has been built on inducing a lot of infield flies, which are basically guaranteed outs, allowing him to post a significantly higher rate of outs on balls in play than the average pitcher.
"Paying a guy with the hope that he continues to induce an above average rate of popups is a great way to lose a lot of money. Of all pitcher skills, it’s one of the least consistent, and if that disappears, he doesn’t have much to fall back on. "
— Anonymously quoted major league scout on ESPN.com: "The last two times I've seen him the last couple years, he wasn't on at all. He struggled getting his breaking ball over for strikes, and when he does that, he's in trouble. He can't get by on a power arm."
— Scott Boras: "Clubs have identified Barry Zito as a No. 1 pitcher and a difference-maker for their staff."
And, as anyone who follows baseball knows, Scott Boras' opinion is the one that matters most.
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